'You don't need a digital strategy, you need to understand the world is changing'

I BELIEVE HUMAN beings are having a hard time understanding the reality of exponential change.

We live in a time during which decentralisation, sharing of resources and artificial intelligence will all become realities. The future is about creating business models and new forms of society that expand wealth and quality of life.

Here, I have outlined 10 trends that will change the world in the coming years:

1. Exponential technologies

These are game-changing technologies that propel society forward and change how we live in countless ways, impacting on every industry and every business. Kodak sold 40,000 cameras per year when it was a world leader in photography; now the global smartphone market totals about 1.5 billion.

Solar energy is one example of steady exponential growth, so you can use this example when you think about the future of energy. All industries will follow.

2. Digitalisation means dematerialisation and demonetisation

This trend marks the transition from hardware to software to service. When products become digital, the margin cost goes to zero, so business models are changing. The Blockbuster video chain went from being a world leader with 65,000 employees to bankruptcy in just six years.

Most companies use digital technology to make their old business models more efficient, but they have missed the point. You don’t need a digital strategy, you need to understand how the world is changing as a result of digitalisation. The true definition of ROI this century is ‘Risk of Ignorance’.

3. Two-thirds of the global population is not online

This is one of the great opportunities for tech companies like Google and Facebook, which are competing to be the ‘internet from the sky’ leader. But it will also mean globalisation of education and the professional services market. In the coming decade, kids growing up in poor, rural areas will, for the first time in history, get access to knowledge without a need to build schools.

‘Massive open online courses’ (MOOCs) are already growing at a speed impossible to follow by the old universities and, soon, office workers in the West will face the same pressure factory workers did some decades ago when we outsourced manufacturing.

4. Fast is the new big and decentralisation will be key

We used to do everything in hierarchies but connectivity leads to transparency and the opportunity to collaborate on a global scale. Crowdsourcing is a faster, more agile and powerful organisation model. This was proven 15 years ago with the birth of Wikipedia. Remember, there is always someone smarter outside the room you are in.

5. The global economy is in for big changes

A constant need for stimulus and zero interest rate policies mean the EU, USA and Japan are borrowing economic growth from the future. This leads to new debt bubbles and growing inequality and, eventually, the end of trust in central banking. With cryptocurrencies and a decentralised ledger, we see the birth of trust networks making any cross-border transaction possible: this is the internet of money.

6. Artificial intelligence can replace humans and solve impossible problems

But what will happen when machines start to get really intelligent, maybe even conscious? Who will decide when to shut down a machine and how to handle growing unemployment rates? Ethical questions will start to come into play.

7. The automotive industry is where mobile phones were 10 years ago

The future of transport is electric, autonomous and shared. Mobility in mega cities will be sustainable by sharing self-driving environmentally friendly cars. Eventually, we will consume transport as a service rather than a product. I wouldn’t bet my money on any of today’s leading car companies.

8. Biomedicine, nanotechnology and robotics are changing health and how we define human beings

DNA sequencing is fast, cheap and accessible to anyone. Medicine will become individual and mind-controlled prosthetic limbs will allow the wearer to feel things. Humans will become cyborgs.

9. Reality is virtual, or at least augmented

Just like social media is part of today’s reality, younger generations will use virtual-reality technologies to experience life in a new way. With self-driving cars, you might want to put on a headset and enjoy the adrenaline rush of a high-speed car chase in Beijing while commuting to work in Dublin. And who would think the subject of history is boring when you can relive the battle of Waterloo?

10. Sharing is caring

The sharing economy means we are sharing assets instead of purchasing for individual ownership only, a much more efficient use of resources. This way, every person can afford more and act in a more sustainable way. In the old hierarchical society, the goal was to reach the top, but in a network society there is no top. The goal is to have a big network and sharing is the strategy to get there.

Stefan Hyttfors is a futurist and business advisor. He will be delivering the keynote address at the launch of Journey Re, a global entrepreneurship competition, in Dublin on Thursday.

If you want to share your opinion, advice or story, email opinion@fora.ie.

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