Poll: Do you expect another property crash within the next decade?
One pundit has predicted a downturn somewhere between 2023 and 2026.
COLUMNIST AND FINANCIAL analyst Karl Deeter has called it. The next Irish property crash will occur sometime in the middle of the next decade.
“Between 2023 and 2026 to be as precise as possible,” he wrote yesterday in the Sunday Business Post.
The Irish Mortgage Brokers co-founder argued that the current rise in property prices takes place “in the absence of massive credit growth”, which suggests that real demand is driving price increases and not a false market.
“What that typically means is that we have done such a bad job of supply that it will take many years to remedy,” Deeter said. “Remedy it will, and we’ll go into hyper-supply and get our crash.”
Deeter is not the first to suggest pent-up demand in the construction sector could eventually give way to unsustainable growth – the government’s spending watchdog, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council, made a similar warning in June.
However, the commentator differed with his bold prediction by putting a date on the bubble bursting. That said, Deeter readily admitted he may well be wrong.
As anyone who remembers 2007′s fateful ‘soft landing’ predictions for the housing market knows, forecasting even near-term economic outcomes is a tricky business – and, as yet, Ireland hasn’t returned to the debt-fuelled mania that inflated the last property bubble.
With that in mind, we’re asking Fora readers: Do you expect another property crash within the next decade?
