Poll: Are you worried about a Brexit?

It’s crunch time when it comes to the UK and its EU membership.

By Peter Bodkin Editor, Fora

ALL THINGS BEING equal, by next week we’ll finally know the outcome of the UK’s referendum on EU membership.

The papers here are full of the topic ahead of the vote, which the most recent poll of polls from the Financial Times has at a tie between the Leave and Remain camps.

When it comes to the impact of an out vote, the much-talked-about Brexit scenario, on Ireland, the official line is that it would be bad news for these shores.

The ESRI late last year predicted two-way trade between the Republic and UK would drop 20%, while the Irish economy would take a hit of up to 2.7% in lost GDP per capita.

But that doesn’t mean there haven’t been high-profile naysayers. One, economist David McWilliams, has argued that a Brexit could actually be good for Ireland if it means UK-bound investment heads to these shores instead.

EU referendum The Leave campaign's Boris Johnson
Source: Isabel Infantes/EMPICS Entertainment

Besides a potential windfall in foreign investment, particularly in the finance sector, a Britain made less accessible to skilled migrants has also been flagged as a possible boon to Ireland through access to a larger pool of able workers.

That of course has to be weighed against the likely downsides, not least a weaker pound that will render Irish exports less competitive.

Local farmers, food and drink producers and SMEs are all expected to be the hardest hit if UK voters want out of the EU, according to Ibec.

Throw in the possible reintroduction of border controls – although let’s be honest, no one really knows what’s going to happen on that front.

One thing that is clear is that people’s interest in the topic has mushroomed over the past month.

This Google chart of search data for Ireland shows how local interest in the prospect of a Brexit has gone from nowhere a year ago to a sudden explosion of interest at the end of May:

Google1
Source: Google Trends

So with all that in mind, we’re asking readers: Are you worried about a Brexit?

Have more to say? Tell us in the comments below