FROM PUSHING UP prices on food and other goods to the spectre of border controls in the North, a hard Brexit has been billed as the worst thing to happen to Ireland since the financial crisis.
In recent months, as the political turmoil in Westminster has grown, indigenous businesses have been warned to step up their Brexit contingency planning to prepare for that scenario.
Goodbody economists this week warned that a no-deal exit could push Ireland’s economy into recession within 18 months of Britain leaving the EU in late March.
The stockbroking firm said the risks of a ‘disorderly exit’ had risen over recent months, although it still assumed the UK would leave the EU “in an orderly manner” on 29 March or push back the date.
But not everyone buys into the doomsday predictions. In its recent analysis, London-based consultancy Capital Economics said forecasts didn’t take into consideration sector-by-sector agreements that would mitigate the no-deal Brexit impact for many industries in Ireland.
The aviation industry, for example, has been given a grace period to comply with EU rules on ownership ahead of a potential hard Brexit.
Of course, a no-deal outcome may not come to pass. Paddy Power currently has the odds of a no-deal Brexit at 11/4 – considerably less likely, according to the bookmaker, than either a withdrawal agreement being in place in March or the exit deadline being extended.
With that in mind, we’re asking Fora readers this week: Are you preparing for a no-deal Brexit?